Significant changes have occurred in the macrophyte community over the last 40 years (Fig. 7.4; Supplementary Materials S7.1). The extent of these interannual period changes has been substantial, especially in autumn when they were more influential than any macrophyte changes due to differences in estuary regions or water depth.
In general, there has been a clear decline in green macroalgal biomass over time, especially after the Dawesville Cut. Whereas green algae represented ~84% of the overall biomass in the late 1970s to mid-1980s (period 1), it was <20% in the most recent period in autumn (period 5, 2018) and 43% in spring (period 4, 2009 and 2017). However, seagrass has increased dramatically post-Cut and more so in recent years, dominating overall biomass in autumn (~70% in period 5) and representing about half the biomass in spring (46% in period 4; Fig. 7.4).
Inter-period shifts in the macrophyte community are shown in more detail for each region of the estuary in the ‘shadeplots’ in Fig. 7.5 (simply the darker the shading, the greater the biomass). Green algal and seagrass biomass are also interpolated across the whole estuary (based on site measurements) in Figs 7.6 and 7.7. In general, these plots show that reductions in green macroalgae over time have been most marked in Peel Inlet (in both the western and eastern sides in autumn and the western side in spring), while seagrass has increased most obviously in the northern Harvey, followed by Peel Inlet (Figs 7.5–7.7).
The large shift in the macrophyte community following the Cut, especially in the northern Harvey and western Peel regions located closest to this channel, are also reflected in Fig. 7.8. Simply, years lying close together on these plots have more similar communities while those further apart have greater differences, and it was clear that there was a notable jump between pre- and post-Cut periods. While there was also a shift in the eastern Peel Inlet over time (mainly in autumn), it was a more gradual progression (Fig. 7.8).
The macrophytes of the southern Harvey Estuary, however, have shown different long-term responses to other regions of the estuary. Although green algal biomass decreased from the late 1970s to just prior to the Cut in the early 1990s, it has again increased substantially in recent years. This was particularly so in spring, where green macroalgal biomass in period 4 (2009, 2017) was higher than that for any macrophyte group across the whole estuary in the full 40 year sampling timeframe. Additionally, seagrass in the southern Harvey virtually disappeared after the mid-1980s (period 1), which may in part reflect further smothering by the extreme blue-green algae blooms in the Harvey Estuary from the late 1970s–1980s McComb and Humphries (1992), combined with the particularly long water residence times in that poorly flushed part of the estuary (pre-Cut: ~150–200 days in autumn and ~50–75 days in spring, compared to ~100 and ~50 days, respectively, in Peel Inlet; Chapter 3), which leads to other negative effects such as greater nutrient retention. While there has been a small (autumn) to moderate (spring) recovery of seagrass in the most recent period, it has not increased to the same extent as in other regions (Figs 7.4, 7.6). It is noteworthy that, while water retention in the southern Harvey fell just after the Cut (~75 days in autumn and 25 days in spring), it is now returning back towards pre-Cut levels (Chapter 3). The lack of clear directional changes in the macrophyte community of the southern Harvey from 1978–2018 is also reflected by the lack of separation of different periods on the plots in Fig. 7.8.
Another (but lesser) exception to the general long-term trends across most of the estuary was the eastern Peel Inlet, especially in spring, where green algal biomass is still comparatively high (Figs 7.6, 7.7). Growths are particularly abundant in the shallow south-eastern corner, which has long been a ‘problem area’ for nuisance macroalgae, and appear to have increased from post-Cut periods to the most recent period in both seasons (Figs 7.6 and 7.7). Given this area is very shallow and close to the mouth of the Murray River, the recurrence of high green algal biomass is not surprising following seasonal increases in temperature (and shallow waters that are quick to warm) and, especially in spring, a new flush of nutrients from preceding winter river flows. Across the broader eastern Peel region, there has been a slight decline in spring algal biomass since the mid-1980s (Fig. 7.4), which could reflect both markedly lower river flows (~50% drop in flow from the Murray sub-catchment since the 1970s, Valesini et al., 2019) and greater tidal flushing.
The distinct changes in the autumn macrophyte communities of the northern Harvey Estuary and western Peel Inlet from 1978–2018, especially after the Cut, were strongly linked with reductions in total nitrogen concentrations (TN) in the water column. For each of these regions located closest to the Cut, this was the case both when TN recorded close to the time of macrophyte sampling was correlated with the macrophyte data (BEST, P = 0.01, Spearman rank correlation [ρ] = 0.697 for Harvey north and 0.52 for western Peel), and after a two-month lag was applied to the water quality data to allow for a macrophyte growth response (BEST, P = 0.01, ρ = 0.668 for Harvey north and 0.44 for western Peel).
This clear relationship can be seen in Fig. 7.8, which shows annual trends in the macrophyte community (black year labels) with the corresponding TN concentrations overlaid as circles of proportionate sizes. Note that, since trends in the ‘non-lag’ and ‘lag’ TN data were similar, only the former are shown. In both regions, the large macrophyte shifts in the post-Cut periods (4–5), which were due to declines in green algae and increases in seagrass (Fig. 7.4), were clearly linked with a large drop in TN from pre-Cut periods.
Correlations between longer-term trends in the spring macrophyte communities and corresponding water quality parameters were also significant, but not as strong. In both the western and eastern Peel Inlet, moderate correlations were found when a combination of lag salinity, temperature and, for the western Peel, also total phosphorus concentration, was used (BEST, P = 0.001, ρ = 0.439–0.489). In general, the longer term changes in the macrophyte community (as shown in Fig. 7.8), were linked with increasing salinities and temperatures and decreasing total phosphorus (TP) concentrations (overlaid plot not shown). Average salinity across the Peel Inlet and Harvey Estuary has increased from ~26 in the pre-Cut periods, to ~32 from 1994-mid-2000s, and again slightly over the last decade (~33), reflecting additional influences of climate change such as reduced river flow (see earlier) and rising sea level (2.6 mm/yr from 1970). TP concentrations, like TN, fell rapidly following the Cut (annual TP averages of ~150 µg/L pre-Cut and ~50 µg/L post-Cut) and have continued to fall over recent decades (Valesini et al., 2019).
The current condition of the macrophyte community, as reflected by the scaled contributions of seagrass as opposed to green macroalgae, is the best that has been observed over the last 40 years in most areas of Peel Inlet and the northern Harvey Estuary, rating good to excellent (A–B) on the relative ‘health’ index scale. However, the communities in the southern Harvey remain in fair to poor condition (C–D; Fig. 7.10).
Trends in the condition index from 1978–2018 show that, in general, the macrophyte community was at its least healthy in the mid to late 1980s, when it was fair to very poor across most of the estuary (Fig. 7.10). This mainly reflected a pronounced loss of seagrass across the system compared to 1978–1984, combined with green macroalgal biomass remaining relatively high (Fig. 7.5). Whereas the condition of the Peel Inlet macrophytes then gradually improved from 1990 to 2018, the condition of the Harvey Estuary (especially the southern region) continued to fall, reaching very poor status in 1995–2000; i.e., virtually no seagrass, but moderate levels of green macroalgae which had increased from just before the Cut (1990–1994; Figs 5 and 9). While green macroalgal biomass has continued to increase in the southern Harvey in recent years (2018; Figs 7.5 and 7.10), there has also been a small recovery of seagrass, leading to an improvement in the overall health score for this part of the estuary. The northern Harvey Estuary on the other hand has shown a striking improvement in macrophyte condition post-Cut, reaching ‘excellent’ status in 2018 and reflecting strong seagrass colonisation and a concurrent reduction in green algae.