Module 6: Ecological Forecasting

Objectives

To use an ecological forecasting model to predict lake primary productivity, and to work through the iterative forecasting cycle of building a model, forecasting with uncertainty, assessing the forecast against observations, and updating the model.

By the end of this module you should be able to:

  • describe an ecological forecast and the iterative forecasting cycle
  • explore and visualise ecological monitoring data
  • calibrate a simple model of primary productivity and use it to generate a forecast with uncertainty
  • adjust model parameters and inputs to see how they affect forecast performance
  • compare forecasts between sites in different ecoclimatic regions

Before you start

  • Review the habitat and ecosystems lecture
  • Think about forecasts you already rely on (weather, bushfire, algal bloom warnings) — what makes them useful, and how is their uncertainty communicated?

Module Resources

This week you’ll be working through the Macrosystems EDDIE module Introduction to Ecological Forecasting, which runs in your browser — there is nothing to install.

The module uses data from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to forecast chlorophyll-a at a lake site of your choosing, driven by NOAA weather forecasts.

Start on the Introduction tab and download the report template — this is the worksheet you will complete as you go and submit at the end of the module.

The app runs on a public server, so it can be slow at busy times and it will disconnect if you leave it idle. Fill in the report template and save the plots as you go rather than leaving it to the end of the class.

Exercises

Work through the three activities in order, answering the questions in the report template as you go.

Activity A: Visualise Data & Build Model

  1. Select a NEON lake site and read the site information.
  2. Explore the variables measured at that site, and the relationships between them and chlorophyll-a.
  3. Work through the nutrient–phytoplankton model, then calibrate it so that the simulated chlorophyll-a matches the observations.

Activity B: Generate & Assess Forecast

  1. Examine the NOAA weather forecast for your site and convert it into model inputs.
  2. Generate a forecast of chlorophyll-a that includes uncertainty, and note which sources of uncertainty matter most.
  3. Assess how well the forecast performed once observations become available.

Activity C: Complete the Forecast Cycle

  1. Update your model parameters using the new observations, and generate a second forecast.
  2. Compare the two forecasts — did completing the cycle improve the forecast?
A forecast without uncertainty is just a guess. When you write up your results, comment on the width of the forecast envelope as well as the position of the central line.

Submission

Submit the completed report template from the module:

  • All discussion questions answered, for Activities A, B and C
  • The plots you generated in the app inserted at the points indicated in the template
  • Your comparison of the first and second forecasts